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Showing posts with label keynes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label keynes. Show all posts

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Obama’s Brain Trust is Brain Dead


Modern-Day Keynesians defame Keynes, ignore his teachings

The White House “economics” team and the Gargoyles on the Parapets of Liberalism like Paul Krugman have been beating the Keynesian drums for over two years now, screaming themselves red-faced for more stimulus every time the last one doesn't work. 

A fundamental tenet of Keynesianism is that government should not raise taxes in an economic downturn.  The illogical and intellectually incoherent left has now closed the circle of self-contradiction, demanding new taxes.

Does anyone really believes that removing $1.5 trillion from the economy will lower unemployment? Maynard Keynes certainly did not!

The Problem with Keynesianism is the Keynesians

Keynesians are wrong on just about everything, notes Daniel J. Mitchell, but Sir Maynard was not, and he was no communist demon.  He was a brilliant man who answered the great economic questions of his time.  He was not an advocate of an ever-expanding government, and he believed permanent debt was bad.  Indeed, his government stimulus theory is predicated upon governments running up surpluses in the good times so they can then use it much like states use their rainy day funds in the bad times:
Keynes, for instance, was an early proponent of the Laffer Curve, writing that, “Nor should the argument seem strange that taxation may be so high as to defeat its object, and that, given sufficient time to gather the fruits, a reduction of taxation will run a better chance than an increase of balancing the budget.”

Keynes also seemed to understand the importance of limiting the size of government. He wrote that, “25 percent taxation is about the limit of what is easily borne.” It’s not clear whether he was referring to marginal tax rates or the tax burden as a share of economic output, but in either case it obviously implies an upper limit to the size of government (especially since he did not believe in permanent deficits). (Mitchell)
Keynes on Hayek

Nicholas Wapshott writes that Keynes read Hayek's "The Road to Serfdom" while sailing across the Atlantic on the way to the Bretton Woods conference.  Here is what he had to say to Hayek...
“The voyage has given me the chance to read your book properly,” he wrote. “In my opinion it is a grand book. We all have the greatest reason to be grateful to you for saying so well what needs so much to be said. You will not expect me to accept quite all the economic dicta in it. But morally and philosophically I find myself in agreement with virtually the whole of it; and not only in agreement with it, but in a deeply moved agreement.”(Keynes and Hayek:  The Great Debate)
Hayek agreed with some of Keynes' prescriptions in some narrow circumstances as well, hence his less than stellar reputation with Rothbardians and some Misesians.

So while we should continue to combat the tired and dangerous ideas of the neo-Keynesians, we should refrain from heaping obloquy upon their ideological father.  It's not Keynes' fault that his disciples have defamed his reputation.

* - For the rare cogent and non-stupid liberal article discussing how Keynes would solve today's problems, please see What Would Keynes Do?  It really is an excellent article.  H/T to our liberal interlocutor Ducky.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Keynes: Economist of the Dictators

I don't know much about economics, but I do know that a politburo full of eggheads can crash the economic ship just like us simpletons in the free market can. Only the egghead crashes are much more spectacular.

Economics is the dismal science, so I hope this post is not too dismal. 

Ducky asked me about liquidity traps in one of his posts last week, and this this the response.  It's Keynes versus the Misesian free marketeers.  I've included lots of links for those who want to explore these pressing but timeless issues further.


Keynesianism is a cold, mechanistic theory sprung from an era when strongman dictatorships were admired for making the trains run on time
"[T]he Krugman/Keynesian viewpoint is based on an extremely mechanistic interpretation of human action. People within a market setting do not purchase goods they believe will meet their individual needs; no, they spend, as though the spending itself is the ultimate end of an economy." (The Deepening Depression)
To the Keynesian statists, we are merely cogs in the machine

Paul Krugman and the rest of the big government, spend spend spend, more stimulus crowd are Keynesians. They believe that if government just spends enough, it can stimulate a down economy. They also believe in the fiction, the fatal conceit, that government central planners can flatten the hills and fill in the valleys of the free market economy.

What modern-day Keynesians tend to forget is that Keynes’s recommendation for governments to spend more in times of economic crises was predicated on the assumption that government would bank up cash during the good times. As we are all now painfully aware, that didn’t happen.  They Keynesians were wrong, again, and the Austrian School has been vindicated, again.
After all, this Keynesian nonsense has had many trial runs, and it has failed every single time. And there are specific reasons: government spending drains reserve capital, nationalizations prop up inefficiencies, and money creation distorts reality and forestalls recovery.
It doesn't take a fortune-teller to discern that this hokum will not work to accomplish its stated aims. All it does is prop up the state and its friends at our expense. (Jeffrey Tucker - The Austrians were Right)
Governments worldwide spent like there was no tomorrow during the good times, so there is no reserve to draw from.  Keynesian stimulus must be funded by putting ourselves further in hock to Communist China. Do any of you know anyone who has borrowed his way to prosperity?   

Liquidity Traps and Other Keynesian Fictions

When Keynesian schemes collapse, as is happening now on a global scale, statists like Krugman resort to that shiniest of glittery baubles, the liquidity trap.
 
Liquidity Trap:  A theoretical fiction created to explain away the failures of Keynesianism.  The point at which you cannot induce people to borrow and spend, even if you give money away. 

The only reason they get by with such nonsense is because the average citizen has little understanding of economics.  There's a lot of "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!" in central-planned statist macroeconomics.

Swedish economist Richard Johnsson writes a short but dense riposte to this nonsense, The Liquidity Trap Myth.

William Anderson provides a less-scholarly, more layman-friendly explanation in his short article,  The Deepening Depression 

 Contra Krugman:  The Austrian School
Murray Rothbard delivered many a withering critique of Keynesianism.  Here are two good ones.  I have to point out that his critique of Reaganomics was principally due to the fact that Milton Friedman's supply-side theories were founded in Keynesianism, government manipulation of people and markets.

Supply Side is Suspect as Well

Finally, Richard Ebeling delivers a critique of Supply Side economics.  He also explains why the Laffer Curve may be a wonderful visual aid used to explain a general concept, but it is not a viable mathematical model.

Supply Side economics is based upon Keynesian principles, and therefore Austrians see it as just another means for statists to chain We The People to the mill wheel of government, albeit in a perhaps more efficient fashion.

I know this may be confusing to those who haven't delved into the dismal science, but it's important to understand it, because this is what future arguments will be revolving around as the slow-motion global economic collapse continues.

See also:   Reason – How Long Will it Take for Keynesianism to Die?